Reasons for slight optimism in the Iron Bowl

I'll be honest, I hate the Iron Bowl. Yes, it's the greatest rivalry in college football, bar none. Yes, beating those inbreds from T-Town for six straight years was incredibly awesome (Never losing to your most hated rival in four years at Auburn? Priceless). Yes, Iron Bowl week brings out the best from the Auburn blogosphere. I realize all these things. I hate the Iron Bowl because so much rides on the damn game.

When Auburn loses, there is an enormous pit in my stomach that is the realization that we'll have to put up with 365 days of Bammer trash talk ("trash" is modifying talk, not Bammer. That would be redundant.) and hope we can end it the next season. When Auburn wins, I feel excitement, but I also feel relief. Jerry at WBE has already expressed this sentiment much better than I could ever hope to here, but I differ from him in one respect: I'm still not "psyched" (his term, not mine) about this year's game. Starting around Thanksgiving dinner through about Black Friday dinner, I will undoubtedly be a nervous wreck. Even knowing that I'm expecting Auburn to get trounced (not as bad as last year, mind you) I still feel sick at the thought of losing to UA-Tuscaloosa. I felt sick after last year, and that was the best Alabama team in 15 years playing the worst Auburn team in 10 years. I guess it just comes with the territory of spending 13 years in public schools in the state.

As far as the game is concerned, if you read the title of this, you may think I believe Auburn has a fighting chance in the game. I've put this on facebook and Track 'em, but this video from one of my favorite movies sums it up quite nicely:



SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE!

Anyways, there is a chance. There's always a chance. Ask Michigan about whether Appalachian State had a chance against them in '07. So what are some reasons to be slightly (1 in a million) optimistic heading into Friday?

1. This is Alabama's first real road test: The stadia that Bama has visited include Commonwealth Stadium (capacity 67,606), Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (capacity 60,580), and Davis Wade Stadium (capacity 55,082). I'm not counting their season-opening trip to the Georgia Dome to face Virginia Tech, as tickets were distributed evenly between the two teams. Trips to Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State don't strike fear into the hearts of opposing teams. However, a trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium (capacity 87,451) does intimidate most opponents. Not only is this the team's first real big road game, but more importantly this is also going to be the largest crowd of opposing fans Greg McElroy has ever played in front of. If Auburn wants to come out on top on Friday, the noise will have to affect his (and his teammates') play.

2. Auburn has performed better against power backs in 2009: There is no doubt Alabama will try to run Mark Ingram for a career day in this year's Iron Bowl. He's on the short list of Heisman favorites and has recently been featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated:



Defensively, Auburn needs to key in on Ingram and hold him in check if we want to have any chance in this game. Fortunately, Auburn's two previous run-ins with "power backs" were being one of three teams this season to keep Mississippi State's Anthony Dixon under 100 yards and bottling up LSU's Charles Scott to 20 yards on 10 carries. UAT would most likely have more success running the football by featuring Trent Richardson more, but given the aforementioned Heisman talk, the Tiger defense can expect a steady diet of Ingram, Ingram, Ingram.

3. Auburn has nothing to lose, Alabama has everything to lose: So those were the only two tangible reasons for optimism for Auburn going into the game, and though I already said I don't share Jerry's view of the game, I felt like I needed to have a third reason for optimism. Auburn has wrapped up a bowl bid, and is most likely headed to the Outback, Chick-fil-A, or Music City. A win over Alabama may vault us to the Cotton, but is that really that much of an improvement? Traditionally, yes it is, but that gain is a small one compared to what the Tide would lose if they were to drop this game: namely, a shot at their 13th* national title. Given this, Alabama should come into this game a little tight, and Auburn should come into this game very loose. The fact that the game is in Auburn should help this as well.

Win, lose, or draw, War Eagle!

*Asterisk for no real reason. Consider it like Roger Maris' asterisk on breaking Babe's record or Barry Bonds' asterisk on breaking Hank's record.

SEC Power Poll and Picks

Sorry for the lack of content this week. Been a busy one. Here's the poll and picks:

SEC Power Poll

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Louisiana State
4. Mississippi
5. Arkansas
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. Auburn
9. South Carolina
10. Mississippi State
11. Kentucky
12. Vanderbilt



Picks:

Mississippi State 23
Arkansas 40

Chattanooga 0
Alabama 35

Florida International 7
Florida 48

Louisiana State 19
Mississippi 17

Vanderbilt 6
Tennessee 24

Kentucky 20
Georgia 31

Sometimes I hate being right

Over at Dawg Sports, I offered this bit of "analysis" before the game, which I have repeated to many people (though usually not in written form):

It seems like recently every Georgia team has had some major flaw that gets corrected just in time for the Auburn game; in 2006 it was Stafford’s inexperience and in 2007 and 2008 it was a defense that loved to give up points. That trend being noted, I fully expect Auburn to lose the turnover battle by 3 on Saturday night. If we can keep from giving the ball away, I like our chances (even with a suspect defense). If Cox and Co. protect the ball and Martinez’ defense takes the ball away from our offense a few times, it may mean a presidential term’s worth of consecutive victories for the Red and Black.

Final turnover margin:

Auburn 2
Georgia 0

And once again Willie Martinez finds his magic just in time for the Auburn game (albeit a quarter late this time). If we played Georgia in September instead of mid-November, I'm positive we wouldn't be oh-for-our-last-four against the Bulldogs. Possible wins include: 2006, 2007 and 2009. Not saying we'd have won three of those four, maybe only one, but in '06 and '07 Georgia started slow and finished strong, and in '09 Auburn started strong and finished poorly. It's not out of the question to say that Auburn playing Georgia when, say, South Carolina always plays them would have an effect on the outcome of the games.

Bitterness aside, Auburn currently is on a very bad trend. Look at our current streaks against all other SEC teams (in alphabetical order):

Alabama: L1
Arkansas: L2
Florida: W2
Georgia: L4
Kentucky: L1
Louisiana State: L3
Mississippi: W1
Mississippi State: W2
South Carolina: W4
Tennessee: W5
Vanderbilt: L1

We currently own losing streaks against six of the other eleven SEC teams, and in two weeks (barring the upset of the year) will have losing streaks of at least two games to our three main rivals: Alabama, Georgia, and LSU. I'm getting tired of not beating our rivals.

Oh well, 7 wins this season is beyond my expectations. The future looks bright in Auburn. Hopefully Tyrik Rollison turns out to be the real deal. War Eagle, and beat Bama!

Weekend predictions

Well, I was going to write up a brief Auburn-Georgia history of all of the coaches of one team that played or coached at the other, but it appears several other websites have beat me to that punch. I also had an extended telephone conversation back home and began cleaning and doing laundry for my 348 visitors this weekend. Anyways, here's some predictions:

Tennessee 17
Mississippi 20

Kentucky 34
Vanderbilt 14

Florida 33
South Carolina 10

Auburn 27
Georgia 20

Louisiana Tech 13
Louisiana State 41

Alabama 26
Mississippi State 8

Troy 27
Arkansas 45

It's Auburn-Georgia week! Wednesday

1996 was Jim Donnan's first season in Athens, and the Bulldogs limped into the Auburn game with a 3-5 (2-4) record. He was still dealing with the mess that Ray Goff left behind, but would improve the program to at least decent status over the next few years. Auburn, meanwhile, was beginning to feel the slide in the Terry Bowden regime that came with lackluster recruiting, but they came into the game at 7-2 (4-2) and fighting for the team's first SEC Western Division title. The '96 game was similar to the '99 game in that it marked the up-and-coming coach with the worse team (record-wise) picking off the older coach whose program was on the downside. Unfortunately for Auburn fans, it was the Tigers on the short end of the stick.

This was a memorable game in the series for two main reasons. First, one of the most iconic pictures in college football history was taken at this game when Georgia's mascot, Uga V, lunged at Auburn wide receiver Robert Baker after he reeled in a touchdown pass. If you've never seen this picture, you've probably never watched Auburn or Georgia or college football period:



You know what would be even better? If we had a live tiger on the sidelines and it lunged at A.J. Green after a touchdown on Saturday! (I'd rather Green not score, but this would be some consolation) Baker's touchdown helped Auburn to a 28-7 halftime lead, and they seemingly had the game in hand. Of course, followers of this rivalry know that Georgia would come back in the second half to tie the game at 28 on the last play of regulation (marking the second consecutive trip the Bulldogs made to Auburn that ended tied after regulation), and thus the second thing that made this game so memorable occurred: Auburn and Georgia were involved in the SEC's first overtime game. Not only that, but at four overtimes it was the longest college football game in history until an Ole Miss-Arkansas tilt a few years later. This game also single-handedly caused the NCAA to change its overtime procedure to force teams to go for two after touchdowns starting in the third overtime. It truly was a historical game!

I still remember watching the game in a Knoxville hotel room (remember, this was during the time in my life when I went to many UT games and mostly rooted for the Vols) with two of my Auburn friends from school. When Dameyune Craig was stopped short on a 4th down in the 4th overtime, my friend Brian ran out of the room, screaming "Oh God, we're going to the weed eater bowl!" I'll never forget that moment, even if I didn't have a dog (pun intended) in the fight. Hopefully Saturday night's game turns out a little bit better for the Auburn faithful.

Not sure what I'll write about tomorrow, but check back and check it out! WAR EAGLE.

It's Auburn-Georgia week! Tuesday

In 1999, first-year Auburn head coach Tommy Tuberville started his career on the Plains with a 3-0 record after victories over Appalachian State, Idaho, and Louisiana State. However, an injury to starter Ben Leard caused the Tigers to lose their next five games in a row before a homecoming victory over Central Florida left them at 4-5 (1-5) going into the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry. Georgia's fourth-year head man, Jim Donnan, had his Bulldogs at 6-2 (4-2) with losses to UGA's main SEC East rivals, Florida and Tennessee (this would be a theme in his time in Athens). Even though Leard's injury hurt Auburn in the middle portion of its schedule, he would suit up for the game against the Dawgs.

I don't know all the details about this game, but I have to imagine that even though the home team hadn't won in the series since a 37-27 Georgia win in Athens in 1991, the Bulldogs would be the favorite in this game, and probably by a pretty decent margin. In many respects, the 1999 game was similar to the 2009 matchup. Georgia's program was beginning to feel the heat from its fans over its inability to beat Tennessee and Florida, and the general downward trend the program was on; Auburn, behind a first-year head coach, was trending upwards (even despite taking some in-season lumps) after the disastrous end to the previous regime. We can only hope Saturday night's game turns out as well as the 1999 version.

Auburn jumped out to a 31-0 lead at halftime before cruising to a 38-21 victory between the hedges. Leard set the Auburn single-game passing yardage mark with 416, and Auburn picked up some much-needed momentum heading into the Iron Bowl. They would finish the season at 5-6, but finished the following regular season at 9-2 and in the SEC Championship Game before ultimately finishing 9-4 with a Citrus Bowl loss to Michigan. Georgia, on the other hand, would finish the season at 8-4 after a win over Mississippi, a loss to Georgia Tech, and an Outback Bowl win over Purdue. Donnan would be fired after posting another 8-4 season in 2000 with losses to rivals South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, and Georgia Tech.

Check back tomorrow (especially if you're a Georgia fan) as I chronicle the 1996 game! WAR EAGLE.

This is super cool

It's Auburn-Georgia week! Monday

The Auburn-Georgia rivalry is a special one for fans of both teams, for many reasons: the two schools have shared a number of coaches and athletic directors, Auburn gets many of its students and athletes from the state of Georgia, the teams have met every fall since 1898 with the exception of one year when the country was in a war, etc. The rivalry is a special one for me personally for a couple of reasons: a good portion of my family is from Georgia and as such are die-hard Bulldog fans, and I have attended both institutions. I got my bachelor's from Auburn in 2007 and will be getting my master's from Georgia in six months. I still root hard for Auburn in every single game (if you've ever read anything on this blog ever you should know that), but the intense hatred I used to hold for UGA has subsided to just a general dislike since I started here. In the past two years since I've lived in Athens, for example, LSU has passed Georgia on my "most hated" list.

The game is extra special for me this year, as it represents my alma mater coming to visit me, rather than the other way around, as it usually is. I get to spend some time with some old friends from Auburn, as well as see all of my current friends at Georgia. I am borrowing a friend's student ticket to the game, so my orange and blue-clad self will be in the belly of the beast, but I trust that the folks I attend the game with will help keep me out of too much trouble.

Anyways, what I'd like to do once per day this week is take a look at some great moments and memorable games from this rivalry. I'll spare you a sappy introduction the rest of the week and cut right to the chase. Today, I'm profiling the 2005 Auburn-Georgia clash in Athens, which is the last Auburn victory in the series.

***

I have already said that this game is my second-favorite Auburn game to attend (only behind 2006 Florida). It was a back-and-forth affair that wasn't decided until John Vaughn booted a 20-yard field goal with six seconds left. I may even say that this game was the most well-played game by both teams I've ever seen. There was a little bit of everything: offense, defense, special teams. All in all, it was a special night for an Auburn fan to be in Sanford Stadium. Here's the obligatory video:



If you're a betting man (or woman), it may be safe to bet that the 61 total points mark in the 2005 game will be eclipsed in the 2009 edition. Both teams have featured suspect defenses this season, and both have performed at least decently on offense.

I'll be back tomorrow with another moment (that has yet to be decided) from this series, and hopefully give a little more in-depth detail on it (more detail on the '05 game can be found at the post I linked to a few paragraphs up). Until then, WAR EAGLE.

SEC Power Poll

As far as the Auburn-Furman game is concerned, only the first half really matters as far as Auburn's performance goes. We had over 400 yards of offense and 42 points, and held the Paladins to 60 yards and three points. It doesn't matter that we gave up 28 points in the second half to them, because most of the people who played on defense in the second half wouldn't even start for my hometown Alabama A&M Bulldogs. That's about all the pixels I'm going to use talking about that game.

This week, I'm going to have daily posts with great moments from Auburn-Georgia to get everyone in the mood for the first leg of Amen Corner. I hope this feature will be a good one, but I make no promises. I'm excited and apprehensive about the game; on the surface, I think we should win, but at the same time, it seems like every single year Georgia has a major flaw that they fix just in time for the Auburn game. That said, I fully expect the Bulldogs to never turn the ball over against us. More on that game in the upcoming week, here's the power poll:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Tennessee (playing better than LSU right now)
4. Louisiana State
5. Arkansas
6. Auburn
7. Mississippi State
8. South Carolina
9. Georgia
10. Mississippi
11. Kentucky
12. Vanderbilt

Week 10 SEC Picks

Pretty easy week for picks this week, only two games that may go either way. Auburn gets its second string a ton of work and rests its starters for Amen Corner. LSU comes close, but a controversial call keeps Alabama undefeated. Arkansas puts the final nail in Spurrier's career at South Carolina (he'll step down after this season).

South Carolina 22
Arkansas 31

Tennessee Tech 14
Georgia 49

Eastern Kentucky 6
Kentucky 65

Furman 7
Auburn 45

Louisiana State 10
Alabama 13

Memphis 3
Tennessee 20

Vanderbilt 10
Florida 33

Northern Arizona 13
Mississippi 59

East Carolina's "Pirate-Out" is coolest "____-Out" ever

Check out East Carolina's midfield design for tonight's game against Va. Tech:



Pardon my French, but that is fucking awesome. Hat tip to EDSBS for posting the pregame view seen above. I don't think ECU is asking their students to dress in any particular color, just to show up like a pirate. That's awesome. If I could be anywhere in the world tonight, Greenville, North Carolina may be at or near the top of that list. This idea is, in a word...

SEC Power Poll

I had Auburn ranked last in last week's Power Poll, and they followed that up with a complete team victory over ranked Ole Miss. Obviously they'll jump up in this week's edition, but how high? How much do I dock Ole Miss for a less-than-stellar effort at Auburn? How much do I jump Tennessee for their convincing win over South Carolina? How much do I dock them for those uniforms? Well, check it out:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Louisiana State
4. Arkansas
5. Auburn
6. Tennessee
7. South Carolina
8. Mississippi State
9. Mississippi
10. Georgia
11. Kentucky
12. Vanderbilt

How on earth did we lose to Kentucky?

This is incredibly awesome

A possible explanation for Auburn's 3-game swoon

When Auburn went up 24-7 in the 3rd quarter against Ole Miss yesterday on Walt McFadden's insane pick six, I texted my friend that the game was much more fun than any of the previous three. He accused me of potentially jinxing it (about the time Ben Tate ran half the field for a touchdown and a 24-point lead), but I knew that might be the case. I wasn't afraid of a jinx because even if we had blown the game and lost, it was still more enjoyable than the previous three weekends. The offense returned to ludicrous speed, Todd threw some deep balls, and the defense showed up in a big way. That seemed like a game from the 5-0 Auburn, for sure.

However, I feel (along with some of my Auburn brethren, I'm sure) a little frustrated by the game. Had we played like that during our three week swoon, we could be 7-2 or 8-1 right now with our sights firmly on a New Year's Day Bowl and possibly in control of our destiny in the SEC West. So what changed from the first five games to those three to the Ole Miss game? I am pinpointing it on one thing: offensive tempo.

During our statement 26-22 victory in Knoxville, I noticed that the offense was running at a slower pace than we had seen in the first four weeks, but I attributed that to the fact we were playing on the road for the first time, in a loud stadium. We needed to get more signals from the sideline presnap in order to get into a positive play. However, we continued to employ this strategy more and more in the next three games and it bit us.

What we saw yesterday was a return to Malzahn's preferred ludicrous speed. We actually got a delay of game penalty called because we snapped the ball too soon. I have never seen that in my 20 years of watching football games. Gustav was running the offense the way he originally envisioned, and it worked. We scored more points, gained more yards, and wore down Ole Miss' defense. It certainly was a 5-0 Auburn-esque performance. So that leads to the question, "Why did we slow it down so much?" And I think the answer is simple: lack of depth on defense.

Auburn's depth issues (especially on defense) have been well-chronicled this season. When you run an offense that tries to score in as little time as possible, that wears on a defense, and a defense whose depth chart probably has the team waterboy as 2nd string in a few positions is a scary thing to have wear down. I imagine that Chizik and company looked at the defense and injury reports and decided as a team to tone down the offense. Seeing the on-field results for the previous three weeks, however, Chizik decided to go back to what worked, knowing he would be risking giving up tons of points and yards on defense, and it was a gamble that paid off. I would wager that we see the offensive tempo we saw from 5-0 Auburn the rest of the season because it worked out well against Ole Miss, and we are at a point in the season where every team has guys banged up and worn down players.

What more did the Ole Miss win do for Auburn's program? Well, for one, we're bowl eligible, and in the running for an upper-tier bowl. In ESPN.com's most recent Bowl Projections, both Mark Schlabach and Bruce Feldman pick Auburn to represent the SEC in the Outback Bowl against Wisconsin (Another bowl game against the Badgers? Be still, my beating heart!). If we end up at 7-5 or 8-4 with a New Year's Day bowl game, the 2009 season can be labeled nothing less than an unequivocal success for Gene Chizik and his coaching staff. The three-game losing streak left some sour taste in Auburn fans' mouths (self included), but Mean Gene and company have done a fine job with our Tigers this season. War Eagle!