Another post about soccer?

Jerry, over at the Car Wash, linked over to my recent post about the United States' recent 2-0 win over Spain in his post today. In the same paragraph, he also links to this post by friend of the Neighborhood JRS at A Lifetime of Defeats. While I agree with the sentiment of JRS' post (namely that seeing USA soccer do well is awesome and Colin Cowherd is an unrelenting douchebag), I respectfully disagree with the following quote from said post:

"[The U.S.] didn't get lucky either...they just went out and outplayed them."

I actually belive that we were very lucky to come out on top in that match. I know I said in my previous soccer post that I wouldn't give any soccer analysis, but I'm going to try to do just that to prove a point. Namely, that the U.S. was fortunate to beat Spain, when looking at some of the numbers.

First of all, I think one of the most important statistics in soccer is possession percentage. Spain held possession of the ball for 56% of the game (meaning the U.S. had it for 44%, naturally). Taking out stoppage time (because I don't have the time or the inclination to look up how much time was added) that means Spain held the ball for roughly 50 minutes compared to our 40 minutes. That's an additional ten minutes they had to score. Several minutes of googling doesn't seem to turn up any results on team records when winning the possession percentage battle, but I'd bet all my Star Wars collection figures that the team that has the ball for longer in a game wins more often than not. (Except Boba Fett. No matter how sure I am, I never bet the Fett man.) So that having been said, just looking at possession percentage, we've already defied the odds; now let's look at the shot distribution.

Looking at the stats at the bottom of the match report, Spain had 18 total shots, 8 of which were on goal; the U.S. had 9 total shots, 2 of which were on goal. To shoot the ball 18 times, 8 of which caused the goalie to deflect or catch the ball, and not have the ball go in? To me that just screams bad luck. I'll liken it to a statistic in baseball that I just love: BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Basically this is a statistic that measures just how lucky a batter has been. It takes away strikeouts and homeruns from the equation, and measures his batting average on balls that were fielded. If your favorite player is on a "hot streak," it's probably because the balls he's hitting are finding holes in the defense. Let's look at an example.

Here's a look at Oakland's current second baseman, Adam Kennedy. He played in St. Louis for the past two seasons, and generally stunk up the joint. He played so poorly that GM John Mozeliak cut ties with him a year before his contract expired, effectively wasting $4 million of payroll. The A's picked him up, and when their usual 2B (Mark Ellis?) went down with an injury, they plugged him in. From the moment he first started for the A's, on May 9, to the end of the month, his batting average (AVG) was .390, his on-base percentage (OBP) was .462 and his slugging percentage (SLG) was .622. These incredible numbers were accompanied by a ridiculous BABIP of .424. His batted balls (giggle) couldn't find an opponent's glove. *As a quick aside, BABIP is generally thought to stay steady over a player's career. It's a function of line-drive percentage, but I won't go into all that ugly detail.* Kennedy's career BABIP is .313. The .424 was unbelievably lucky. Fast forward to current day. His numbers from June 1 to June 24 are .213/.278/.337 (AVG/OBP/SLG). His BABIP in that time period? .223. Incredibly unlucky.

So what was all that mathematical garbage supposed to mean? It means that a team that has 8 shots on goal would beat a team with 2 shots on goal more often than not. Sometimes, you shoot the ball, and it clanks off the goalpost and into the stands. Sometimes, you shoot the ball, it ricochets off the goalie, clanks on the correct side of the goalpost, and hits the back of the net. Luck. Pure and simple.

Spain also had 14 corner kicks to our 3. Outside of penalty kicks, corners seem to me (a soccer n00b, remember) to be the best chance at scoring a goal. The fact that Spain had that many more corner chances than we did, and still came away empty-handed, also screams luck to me.

So what can we tell going forward based on this information? Not a whole lot. Just because we were lucky in one game doesn't mean we'll be completely unlucky in the next. Just because Albert Pujols goes 5-5 with 3 HR one day doesn't mean he's due to go 0-4 the next. But if we want to have a chance at beating the Brazilians, we'll have to do a better job of holding onto the ball and keeping the pressure on their defenders and goalie, as well as hope that their shots miss the mark just as well as Spain's did. I'll be glued to the TV on Sunday afternoon, hoping and praying that we pull away with a victory. My better judgment says we fall to the Brazilians 3-1. But hey, a second-place finish, including a victory over the world's number one team, in a tournament as big as this one is still a huge deal for American soccer. We should vault into the top 10 of the FIFA World Rankings.

Now let's go beat that Brazilian ass (mmm...Brazilian ass...) and make JD eat crow!

RIP Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson

Sad day today, as both Fawcett and Jackson passed away. Fawcett's death wasn't too entirely surprising, as she's been battling anal cancer for several years. Jackson's, however, was mostly a complete shock. The only thing keeping this from being a complete shock is the fact that he's undergone so many weird surgeries and mental stress from a tough family life and being in court. Here's some video in memoriam.

Michael Jackson - Thriller
Uploaded by GGG40. - Sitcom, sketch, and standup comedy videos.

Jackson's Thriller has to rank near the top of my favorite albums of all time. His Dangerous was the first CD I ever had, got it for Christmas from my Mom Santa Claus. I don't really have a whole lot to say about Fawcett, because by the time I was old enough to pay attention to the entertainment business, she was past her prime. She was a beautiful woman, though, that's for sure.

RIP.

USA beats Spain 2-0

The biggest win ever for USA soccer? Biggest since I've started watching, for sure. There's lots of analysis on the internet on how we managed to beat the #1 team in the world, a team that hadn't lost in 3 years, especially when we were outshot by 20 shots. You can find it if you know how to use google. You probably don't want to even see me try to do any real soccer analysis, but I'll just say I doubt we'll repeat this performance against the Brazilians. I will, however, be cheering like hell come Sunday.

The biggest thing I noticed about this game, being the soccer fan novice and movie aficionado I am, is that the guy who played Mitch in Dazed and Confused has grown up and now plays soccer for Spain. Check it out:





I was wondering what happened to him!

Albert Pujols is really really good

Not that anyone reading this blog didn't already know that, of course. Check out this article by Tim Kurkjian. Every single person he asks would like to see Pujols in an AB. I love Albert Pujols.

Also, I'm a little surprised that Gary Sheffield didn't pick himself.

RIP Georgia Theatre

Quick update. Head over to A Lifetime of Defeats to see more pictures like this one of the carnage in downtown Athens.



Tiger +4 after one round of the U.S. Open. My winner pick, Anthony Kim is -2 after 6 holes and tied for the lead. Sweet.

U.S. Open Time

We're on the eve of one of my favorite sporting events in the year: The U.S. Open in golf. This year the PGA returns to the Black course at Bethpage, which was the site of one of the most memorable Opens in recent years in 2002. Tiger Woods held off Phil Mickelson, winning the tournament at -3. He was the only player under par, while Mickelson shot even par. Add in the fact that your typical raucous New York crowd was into every shot all four days, and this was a site to behold. So what's going to happen this year? Well, here's one hack's answer to a few questions:

1. Tiger or the field? Anyone who answers Tiger would likely lose a bunch of money in mere minutes in Vegas. Obviously, if the question were "Who would you bet would win the Open?" the answer would be Tiger. But the question, as posed, is "Tiger Woods or any of the other 154 golfers in the field this weekend whose name isn't Tiger Woods." Vegas currently has Tiger at 5/2 odds, meaning they give him a 28.6% chance of winning. This is by far the best chance for an individual player, but that means the field would have a 71.4% chance.

Not only does Vegas say the field is favored, but so does history. Tiger has won 14 majors in his career. He has started 47 majors since turning pro in August, 1996. That means he wins about 30% of the majors he starts. That is a phenomenal number, but that doesn't mean he's favored over everyone else. In fact, starting at the 1999 PGA Championship, when he went on his roll of 4 straight major titles, he's gone 13-for-36, a 36.1% winning percentage. Again, mind-boggling, but not 50+%. Looking just at U.S. Opens since Tiger turned pro, he's 3-for-12, a 25% winning percentage. Phil's jealous, but the field isn't.

Hopefully these little math/history lessons have helped you understand why it's not wise to pick Tiger against the field. If your friend says "I'll bet you $20 that Tiger wins the Open," you take that bet every time. If your friend says "Let's each pick one golfer in the Open; whoever's golfer finishes higher, wins $20. I pick Tiger Woods." You don't take that bet. Unless he lets you pick first, then you take Tiger.

2. What will the winning final score be? Last time they played here it was -3. One guy was under par. That same guy is back, but he's still recovering from knee surgery. He says it's harder this time around. I'm going with +4, 284. Call it a hunch.

3. Who will be the winner? After I just told you to bet on Tiger over every other individual golfer (not the field, remember!), I'm not going to pick him. He's had flashes of absolutely brilliant golf since coming back from his knee injury, but he's not totally there. He just hasn't been (FJM (RIP) alert) consistent enough. Bethpage Black is a beast of a course. He can't afford to be inconsistent. Just like with my final winning score, I'm going from the gut. I'm taking young Anthony Kim to come out on top this weekend. A complete hunch. We'll see how it turns out.

Other possibilities? Stewart Cink (finished well last time it was there, time's running out for him to win the big one), Geoff Ogilvy (Open winner 3 years ago) and Padraig Harrington (he's been the best golfer in the world for the past 12 months). Don't bet on: Phil Mickelson (his mind will be elsewhere, and rightfully so) and Sergio Garcia (New York fans really let him have it last time he was at this course).

Enjoy the Open!

No words

EMBED-Biggest dork ever - Watch more free videos

He's sort of a wild and crazy guy.

Tony Franklin speaks

It's been a week since I've posted on my blog, so I figured it would be time for an update.

Going to see The Hangover in about an hour and a half, and I can't wait. Should be an awesome movie in the mold of other movies like this one, this one and this one, all three of which are some of the funniest movies I've seen.

Anyways, the purpose of this post is to point you to this article about Auburn's former offensive "coordinator" Tony Franklin. It's a little long, but it's certainly worth the read if you've got a little time. It's an interesting view of the inside of the Auburn athletic department, and sadly, none of it is too surprising.

If you ask me, Auburn's a pretty successful athletic college. We're generally a top half SEC team, with division championships and conference titles sprinkled in throughout the years in football. However, the atmosphere the administration, board of trustees and athletic director have created is not one that is conducive to productive work. The board of trustees is far too involved in the goings on of the athletic department, and the hand-picked athletic director appears to be a boob who serves as a puppet for the board of trustees.

Unfortunately, you can't fire trustees, so we just have to wait until the ones currently on the board are gone, and hope that their replacements have more of a laissez-faire attitude with regards to the athletic department. And of course, we all hope Jay Jacobs is relieved of his duty very soon.