Reasons for slight optimism in the Iron Bowl

I'll be honest, I hate the Iron Bowl. Yes, it's the greatest rivalry in college football, bar none. Yes, beating those inbreds from T-Town for six straight years was incredibly awesome (Never losing to your most hated rival in four years at Auburn? Priceless). Yes, Iron Bowl week brings out the best from the Auburn blogosphere. I realize all these things. I hate the Iron Bowl because so much rides on the damn game.

When Auburn loses, there is an enormous pit in my stomach that is the realization that we'll have to put up with 365 days of Bammer trash talk ("trash" is modifying talk, not Bammer. That would be redundant.) and hope we can end it the next season. When Auburn wins, I feel excitement, but I also feel relief. Jerry at WBE has already expressed this sentiment much better than I could ever hope to here, but I differ from him in one respect: I'm still not "psyched" (his term, not mine) about this year's game. Starting around Thanksgiving dinner through about Black Friday dinner, I will undoubtedly be a nervous wreck. Even knowing that I'm expecting Auburn to get trounced (not as bad as last year, mind you) I still feel sick at the thought of losing to UA-Tuscaloosa. I felt sick after last year, and that was the best Alabama team in 15 years playing the worst Auburn team in 10 years. I guess it just comes with the territory of spending 13 years in public schools in the state.

As far as the game is concerned, if you read the title of this, you may think I believe Auburn has a fighting chance in the game. I've put this on facebook and Track 'em, but this video from one of my favorite movies sums it up quite nicely:



SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE!

Anyways, there is a chance. There's always a chance. Ask Michigan about whether Appalachian State had a chance against them in '07. So what are some reasons to be slightly (1 in a million) optimistic heading into Friday?

1. This is Alabama's first real road test: The stadia that Bama has visited include Commonwealth Stadium (capacity 67,606), Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (capacity 60,580), and Davis Wade Stadium (capacity 55,082). I'm not counting their season-opening trip to the Georgia Dome to face Virginia Tech, as tickets were distributed evenly between the two teams. Trips to Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State don't strike fear into the hearts of opposing teams. However, a trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium (capacity 87,451) does intimidate most opponents. Not only is this the team's first real big road game, but more importantly this is also going to be the largest crowd of opposing fans Greg McElroy has ever played in front of. If Auburn wants to come out on top on Friday, the noise will have to affect his (and his teammates') play.

2. Auburn has performed better against power backs in 2009: There is no doubt Alabama will try to run Mark Ingram for a career day in this year's Iron Bowl. He's on the short list of Heisman favorites and has recently been featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated:



Defensively, Auburn needs to key in on Ingram and hold him in check if we want to have any chance in this game. Fortunately, Auburn's two previous run-ins with "power backs" were being one of three teams this season to keep Mississippi State's Anthony Dixon under 100 yards and bottling up LSU's Charles Scott to 20 yards on 10 carries. UAT would most likely have more success running the football by featuring Trent Richardson more, but given the aforementioned Heisman talk, the Tiger defense can expect a steady diet of Ingram, Ingram, Ingram.

3. Auburn has nothing to lose, Alabama has everything to lose: So those were the only two tangible reasons for optimism for Auburn going into the game, and though I already said I don't share Jerry's view of the game, I felt like I needed to have a third reason for optimism. Auburn has wrapped up a bowl bid, and is most likely headed to the Outback, Chick-fil-A, or Music City. A win over Alabama may vault us to the Cotton, but is that really that much of an improvement? Traditionally, yes it is, but that gain is a small one compared to what the Tide would lose if they were to drop this game: namely, a shot at their 13th* national title. Given this, Alabama should come into this game a little tight, and Auburn should come into this game very loose. The fact that the game is in Auburn should help this as well.

Win, lose, or draw, War Eagle!

*Asterisk for no real reason. Consider it like Roger Maris' asterisk on breaking Babe's record or Barry Bonds' asterisk on breaking Hank's record.

2009 SEC Predictions: Alabama Crimson Tide

For the second installation in my season predictions for the SEC, I'm traveling up U.S. 280 and down I-59/20 to Tuscaloosa, to preview the defending SEC West champions. The Tide had a magical season in 2008, reaching the #1 ranking before bowing out to Florida and Utah in the SEC Championship Game and Sugar Bowl, respectively. 2009 would figure to be a reloading year for the Tide, but Saban has them in "We don't rebuild, we reload" mode in only his third year. So what does 2009 hold for the Elephants? Let's see...

Alabama Crimson Tide 10-2 (7-1)

The Tide loses a three-year starter at the most important position in quarterback John Parker Wilson. He may have completely sucked for the first two years he was a starter in Tuscaloosa, but he was rock solid for the Tide last season. Behind a veteran line he led Alabama to its first SEC Championship game in nine years. But he (and stalwart LT Andre Smith) are gone, and Alabama will be replacing two key members of its offense. They figure to take a step back as a new quarterback learns the system and SEC defenses adjust to Jim McElwain's offensive system. Let's get on to the schedule:

Sure wins: Florida International, North Texas, @Kentucky, @Mississippi State, Chattanooga
Sure losses: none
Toss-ups: Virginia Tech, Arkansas, @Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana State, @Auburn

Game-by-game:

Virginia Tech 24 Alabama 13: For the second consecutive season Alabama will travel to Atlanta to face an ACC foe in a neutral site game in Tha Dome. I don't think Alabama will fare quite as well as they did in their 2008 opener against Clemson. Virginia Tech will be a very good team in 2009 and will be ready for the Tide. Alabama will keep it close for three quarters, but the game will end similarly to Alabama's last trip to Atlanta. They start the season at 0-1 (0-0).

Alabama 37 Florida International 6: Not much to say about this game. Alabama overpowers FIU in a laugher. Maybe a brawl will break out and a dude on crutches will fight some Tide players. The Tide bounces back to 1-1 (0-0).

Alabama 41 North Texas 3: Seriously, can you think of a lamer first two home games than FIU and North Texas? This is worse than Auburn's first two of Louisiana-Monroe and Southern Miss from a year ago. Alabama wins another laugher, this time over the Mean Green, going away, improving 'Bama to 2-1 (0-0).

Alabama 21 Arkansas 17: Last season, Alabama pick-sixed Arkansas to death in Fayetteville, rolling to a huge road SEC win. However, they certainly will not be playing the same Razorback team in 2009. Bobby Petrino figures to have his Hogs ready to contend for the SEC West title. The Hogs play Alabama close in Tuscaloosa, before finally falling by four, as Alabama wins its first SEC contest, improving to 3-1 (1-0).

Alabama 30 Kentucky 10: This is a litle bit of a trap game for Alabama, between a home tilt against the Razorbacks and a road trip to the Grove. Fortunately for them, Kentucky will experience some growing pains in 2009 after successfuly 2007 and 2008 campaigns. Alabama should roll over the Wildcats in Lexington. The Tide moves to 4-1 (2-0).

Alabama 22 Mississippi 13: Ole Miss may be the trendy pick to win the SEC West in 2009, but I'm not buying it. I see Alabama rolling into Oxford and coming out with a solid, if unspectacular, victory over Houston Nutt's Rebels. This victory will thrust the Tide into the forefront of SEC West championship talks at 5-1 (3-0).

Alabama 26 South Carolina 8: This is the closest game of Alabama's "toss-ups" I came to putting in the "sure wins" category. **EDIT: Please forgive the horrid grammar of the previous sentence. I hope it makes sense to you.** People may think that the Gamecocks have underachieved under Steve Spurrier, but it has actually been (the other) USC's best four-year run. That tells you more about the Gamecock program than Steve Spurrier. Anyway, Alabama should come out with a reasonably easy victory in Tuscaloosa against the Cocks (tee hee). With the win, Alabama moves to 6-1 (4-0).

Alabama 28 Tennessee 7: Since Nick Saban took over in Tuscaloosa, Alabama has owned the two games against the Volunteers. Of course, UT has a new coach in Lane Kiffin, and the previous two victories were against Phil Fulmer, but the Vols should experience growing pains in 2009 and the game will be played in Tuscaloosa. Look for Alabama to roll over Tennessee once again in 2009. This will be the Tide's seventh consecutive victory after the season-opening loss to the Hokies, pushing their record to 7-1 (5-0).

Louisiana State 20 Alabama 13: In my opinion this game will determine the SEC West champion. That it's being played in Baton Rouge and the fact that the Purple Tigers will have a (slightly) more experienced quarterback make me think that they will come away victorious. Either way, Nick Saban's return to the Bayou will be a hard-fought, close affair, and I see Alabama dropping to 7-2 (5-1).

Alabama 20 Mississippi State 3: After an emotionally draining loss in Louisiana, Alabama returns home to face the Bulldogs from Starkville. Though Alabama should cruise to victory, I forsee this being closer than it could be because Alabama will be deflated after a close loss. Alabama sleepwalks through a 17-point victory, improving to 8-2 (6-1).

Alabama 45 Chattanooga 0: Nothing to say. Alabama beats the Mocs handily in preparation for the Iron Bowl. They now sit at 9-2 (6-1).

Alabama 20 Auburn 12: See my previous entry on Auburn's season to see a description of this game. Alabama finishes the season at 10-2 (7-1).

Honestly, I wanted to give the Tide a worse record than that. It may be the Auburn fan in me showing, but I couldn't find any other losses on the schedule. Yeah, they may lose to Ole Miss, or Tennessee, or even Auburn, but I just don't see it. Saban has Alabama in position to be an SEC contender for years to come, whether Auburn (or any other SEC team) fans like it or not.

Top 5 Auburn games attended

As promised in my last post, I am going to give the top five Auburn games I've seen live. Before I get to the list, I must offer this bit of biographical information:

I was born in the quaint town of Johnson City, Tennessee to a mother whose entire family was from Memphis and a father who spent much of his childhood and younger adult life in the hills of East Tennessee. As such, I was raised a Tennessee fan; that is, until I started at Auburn in August, 2003. While UT still holds a special place in my heart, I mention this to explain the fact that the five games on this list occurred in this decade.

Now, without further ado, J.D.'s top 5 Auburn football games!

5. Auburn 34, Tennessee 10 - October 2, 2004, Knoxville, TN

The 2004 Auburn Tigers were a great team; perhaps the greatest I've ever watched, and without a doubt the greatest I've ever followed. However, Auburn fans didn't realize that something special was happening that season until this crisp October night on the banks of the Tennesseee River. In four games up to this point, Auburn had handily beaten three also-rans and edged defending national champion LSU by one point -- while only scoring ten -- at home. The trip to Tennessee was the first big road test for the veteran Tigers squad, with new offensive coordinator Al Borges. The Vols, on the other hand, were 3-0 behind waxings of two also-rans and a last-second, 50-yard field goal to beat Ron Zook's last Florida team in Knoxville. UT featured two true freshman QBs in Erik Ainge (the thrower) and Brent Schaeffer (the runner). Most analysts predicted that the home crowd would be too much for Auburn to handle, but Ronnie Brown and Carnell Williams had the last laugh:



Auburn would run out to a 31-3 halftime lead, and leave Knoxville with an emphatic 34-10 victory. This would be the point in the season where Auburn went from "Hey, they're pretty good" to "Damn, this team is nasty."

4. Auburn 10, LSU 9 - September 18, 2004, Auburn, AL

As mentioned in the AU/UT recap above, Auburn edged LSU by one point behind some last-minute heroics by Jason Campbell, Courtney Taylor and Junior Rosegreen. Earlier in the week, the game was in danger of being postponed due to Hurricane Ivan; Auburn let class out for Wednesday through Friday of the week, and Ivan hit hard on Thursday. However, by game time on Saturday, the weather was warm, muggy, and there wasn't a cloud in the sky. LSU came in on the heels of winning the program's first national title since 1958 in 2003, but with two green QBs: Marcus Randall and JaMarcus Russell. The purple Tigers were 2-0 with a close, should-have-been-a-loss win over Oregon State (OSU's kicker missed like 30 field goals and 15 extra points) and a laugher over Arkansas State. Auburn was also 2-0, and had yet to be challenged. LSU came out and took an early 9-3 lead (thanks to a missed (or was it blocked?) extra point following their lone touchdown); from there, it would be a battle of the punts (and an unsuccessful 4th and goal attempt from Tommy Tuberville). On Auburn's final drive, Jason Campbell completed 4th-and-long and 3rd-and-long passes to Courtney Taylor to tie the game, then John Vaughn gave Auburn the lead on his second extra point try (LSU was penalized on Vaughn's first try, which was a miss). Junior Rosegreen intercepted a late Russell pass, and the celebration was on. Enjoy this, which may be my favorite Auburn game montage on youtube:



3. Auburn 28, Alabama 18 - November 19, 2005, Auburn, AL

Alabama started 2005 9-0, and were supposedly "back." Auburn started the year off with a loss to Georgia Tech, and was seemingly out of the SEC West race with an overtime loss to LSU in mid-October. However, by the time this game was starting, Alabama had lost a heartbreaking overtime game to LSU in Tuscaloosa, and Auburn had quietly gotten on a post-LSU roll (including a certain game that may appear next in this list...what could it be??). On a cool, overcast day, Auburn started the game by forcing a 3-and-out (including two sacks), outscored Alabama 21-0 in the first quarter, and the outcome was never in doubt after that. Brodie Croyle was sacked eleven times in the game. Here's the highlight package:



2. Auburn 31, Georgia 30 - November 12, 2005, Athens, GA

Georgia was a win away from a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. Auburn needed some help and to win out to make the trip. Georgia was the heavy favorite, though Auburn had put together a quiet run of nice wins. In a game that was back and forth the entire time, Auburn came out with a miracle victory thanks to a 4th-and-15 completion from Brandon Cox to Devin Aromashodu and a last-second chip shot field goal from John Vaughn. Coming down the stretch, it was apparent that the last team to have the ball would win the game; this was true, excepting for the few seconds Georgia had the ball after the Vaughn field goal. Poor clock management by Mark Richt could have cost the Bulldogs the game, however; Georgia scored a touchdown to take a 29-28 lead, and while deliberating going for two (what's to deliberate?!), Georgia took a delay of game penalty, then another, before finally opting for the PAT from the 13 yard line. **EDIT: I was mistaken. The PAT/2-point conversion mistake occurred when the score was 21-20. Going for 2 would have made it a 28-21 game, but the extra point only made it 27-21.** The only thing to remember from this game, though, is "Are you kidding me?!"



1. Auburn 27, Florida 17 - October 14, 2006, Auburn, AL

This was hands down the most fun football game I've ever attended. When Auburn blocked Florida's punt early in the third quarter and Tre Smith recovered it and flipped into the end zone, Jordan-Hare was louder than I've ever heard any football stadium, and it was literally rocking. After Florida dominated the first half en route to a 17-8 lead, Auburn took the opening drive of the second half and kicked a field goal to cut the lead to 17-11. **EDIT: Auburn kicked the field goal right before halftime, not right after. It was 17-11 at halftime, and I believe Florida actually got the ball first in the second half.** After a Gator 3-and-out, the magical punt block occurred, putting Auburn ahead 18-17. Florida would not score another point in this game, as Auburn used four John Vaughn field goals, a safety, a special teams touchdown and a game-ending defensive touchdown to fell the Gators. This would be Florida's only blemish on their 2006 national championship team. Charles Barkley's 21-17 prediction would have been exactly right were it not for the last defensive touchdown; I'm sure he could have paid off some of his gambling debt with that kind of prediction. Enough talking, here's the awesome video:



You can always tell how big of a touchdown it is by how crappy the Auburn band sounds playing "War Eagle" afterward. Listen to how out-of-tune the band is after Smith's touchdown.

Honorable Mention:

AU 23 Clemson 20 - 2007 Chick-fil-A Bowl
AU 24 Georgia 6 - 2004
AU 28 Alabama 23 - 2003

The last one is my first Iron Bowl experience. The very first play of my very first Iron Bowl:



I can't imagine a better way to get your feet wet in the biggest college football rivalry.

Special thanks to Auburn youtube-maker extraordinaire autiger96 for putting together several of those videos, and to the makers of the other videos.